So I'm sure noone was too surprised that we lost to VCU. The game was a microcosm of the whole season. Flashes of potential marred by turnovers and inconsistency. To be honest, I'm not sure if we over or underachieved. No one on the team really has a complete game. Everyone does 1 or 2 things well, but then has 1 or 2 glaring holes, also. Hopefully, the new recruits will help. Singler sounds very solid, and King and Smith should help.
Another big question I have is would we be better off without Josh McRoberts? I think he'll be a benchwarmer in the NBA, but he might still be a first round pick. I'm thinking Singler can probably do most things Josh does, plus shoot a lot better.
I'm making an early prediction for '07-'08. We'll probably finish 2nd or 3rd in the ACC, earn a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA and then bow out in the round of 8. At least it would be a big improvement.
5 comments:
I figure I need to get out my frustrations now while the wounds are still fresh....
It's hard to say we overachieved with so many McDonald's All-Americans on our team, but the truth of the matter is, we don't have any high caliber NBA talent on our team like in the past. Josh McRoberts, though projected as a lottery pick in the past, needs so much more maturing as both a player and a person before he can become a quality pro. I agree that right now, he looks more like a second stringer. He has to develop a better outside shot to compete at the next level. My prediction: he'll be at Duke four years, which is really where his talents lie, for now.
Look for next year's team to be drastically improved, mostly because the rest of the teams in the ACC will be losing a lot of talented players, except for maybe UNC. With the exception of Brandon Wright, I really don't see anyone else leaving, including our favorite masked-man TH. UNC will still be the toast of the ACC, but I think we can at least provide somewhat of a challenge next year. Of course, it really depends on the impact of the freshman class. I predict Demarcus Nelson will be that typical lone Duke senior who can provide that needed stability while carrying the team on his back, but only so far (e.g. Chris Carawell, Dahntay Jones, Nate James, even Daniel Ewing). Gerald Henderson is the X-factor. If he can break out next year, look for great success. Scheyer will be the consistent outside threat. Lance Thomas and Zoubek are non factors, and look for Thomas to eventually transfer like Boykin and Boateng. And I have a strange feeling that Paulus will have a great year. It looks like he's got his confidence back, and that makes a huge difference. He still can't guard Ty Lawson, but we'll have others for that job next year.
I have no doubt we'll make the sweet sixteen next year, but I think our year is the following season, 2008-9. Whether McRoberts is there or not, I think that will be our run for the title. Maybe we'll even face UNC for the championship. Wouldn't that be great?
I don't know, Eric. I think Demarcus has hit his ceiling. He's pretty athletic and tough, but he's too short to go inside.
I actually think Singler and King might be the keys to next year. They're both good shooters and about 6-8, 6-9. Hopefully, they'll provide us with some easy points that we lacked this year.
For us to get the maximum out of our team next year, we need McRoberts back (for experience & D, if nothing else) and then to sign Patrick Patterson (6'9" 230 lbs). With Patterson, our lineup should be:
Starters / Bench
PG Nolan Smith/ G. Paulus
SG G. Henderson / J. Scheyer
SF D. Nelson / D. McClure
PF J. McRoberts / K. Singler
C P. Patterson / L. Thomas
That leaves Taylor King, M. Pocius, and Zoubek out of luck.
We've got way too many guys and I expect 3-4 transfers between now and the start of the '08-'09 season. Just not enough minutes for everyone, esp. since Coach K rarely plays more than 7 players for more than 10 min/game.
Every returning player needs to really take it upon himself to get better and work on their game.
As for our coaching staff, we have to stay committed to going inside on offense (read: McRoberts has to post-up more. Otherwise, Patterson or Singler needs to). It's like a running game in football. Less flashy than passing (or 3-pointers) but it wins you championships. We also have to be able to play zone defense to make up for our lack of quickness against certain teams. Next, we have to attack the basket with dribble penetration like we did in the first halves of the BC and Clemson games late in the season. Gotta stay aggressive. Gotta improve fundamentals: dribbling, breaking down a press, inbounds plays, post-ups, and FREE THROWS. Also have to play our best players 25-30 minutes but also need to play our next set of players 10-15 min to allow them to improve and have an impact come NCAA tournament time.
Early Prediction: Tied for 3rd with Ga Tech and MD. Behind UNC and NC State. 10-6 in the ACC. 24-8 overall. #4 seed in the NCAAs. Sweet 16 to Elite 8 finish. The year after if everyone stays and improves, we'll be a Top 5 team with a shot at another title. This team is a lot like the '97 team. '98 we got to the Elite 8 and lost to Kentucky (eventual champs) and then in '99 we were dominant and lost a winnable game to UConn. So I think 2009 after Coach K is done with the Olympics will be his next best shot at title #4. But he's going to have to make some adjustments.
I mostly agree, Charles. We need to get Patterson, or we'll look too much like we did this year. Josh looks too uncomfortable posting up. He's better at beating his man off the dribble or setting up to pass.
The only thing I would say about your lineup is that we can't have Paulus and Scheyer out there at the same time - too slow and small on the perimeter. And I think King will actually take some of Scheyer's and a lot of McClure's minutes. He's a good shooter and has good size.
My thoughts:
1) Lance Thomas needs bilateral hand transplants to replace the pitchforks he currently uses as upper extremities. That boy needs to practice with the automatic ball machine to learn to catch or maybe he needs to go to the eye center to get glasses or contacts Oh, and he can do this after he takes his free trip to Australia this summer with the amount of traveling he does.
2) Paulus looks like he finally removed his estrogen patch in time for the NCAA tourney. Too bad it was too little too late. I think that he needs to spend some time over the summer chasing a chicken like in "Rocky" because he is still a defensive liability. Meet Lance Thomas, pitchforks for hands, and his friend Paulus, feet of stone. Formula for championship run includes quick (nope), good shooting (getting better) guard that can stop dribble penetration (lamp post D doesn't count) and take the ball to the rack (often looks accidental). Oh, by the way, someone needs to tell him to stop picking up his dribble.
3) McRoberts needs to realize that he is actually 6'10" and is actually not the point guard (although he is our best point guard). But then again if Paulus would actually do his job, maybe McRoberts would actually achieve his potential. I have no problems with McRoberts except that he needs to get some sun (see Paulus).
4) Nelson has hit his ceiling unless he decides to practice his outside shot. Without being a consistent threat from the outside, he is a nonfactor. At the beginning of the season, people didn't really know how to play him so he had some success. Now they do, play off him and let him shoot.
5) Scheyer, the bus for GNC leaves in 20 minutes, get the two for one Weight Gainer formula, yeah the extra large tubs. Oh, also please read the memo about your role that is to hit the 3 point shot with something approaching consistency. This isn't high school anymore where you play against scrubs and score 15 points in one minute. These people are actually athletic, ya huckleberry. Oh and get a tan for the love of Pete (see McRoberts and Paulus).
I have more thoughts, but we are out of time. Thanks for coming. Try the salmon, it's fresh. And tip the waitress. I'll be here all week.
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